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COVID-19 – „Lebăda neagră” a industriei petrolului

COVID-19 – pandemia venită de nicăieri și care a pus palma în piept omenirii, încetinindu-i ritmul. În fiecare țară, aproape toate sectoarele economiei au fost afectate. Asistăm la o hemoragie globală de resurse, într-o direcție pe care nicio analiză predictivă nu a surprins-o nici măcar la începutul acestui an.

Analiștii care emit opinii avizate în piața petrolului preconizau o criză a acestuia (în exces) în jurul anului 2040, preponderent din cauza creșterii eficienței energetice, a reorientării către sursele de energie alternativă și a obiectivelor îndrăznețe ale producătorilor de automobile electrice. Dintr-odată aceste aprecieri par dintr-o altă realitate, perioada la care se referă fiind undeva în afara timpului perceptibil.

Miliarde de oameni s-au adaptat la o altă normalitate, una în care nevoia de combustibil s-a diminuat drastic. Brusc, a dispărut lupta cu traficul zilnic, făcându-și apariția telemuncă. Companiile aeriene, sub obligația normelor UE de a exploata 80% din sloturile de decolare și aterizare, au devenit sursa „zborurilor fantomă”, în timp ce foștii clienți ai acestor companii s-au reorientat către videoconferințe.

Restricțiile de deplasare adoptate în întreaga lume pentru a evita propagarea COVID-19 au fost primul pas către un dezechilibru al pieței petroliere mondiale, care a înregistrat scăderi de până la 30% de la începutului anului.

Al doilea motiv al scăderii accentuate a prețurilor pare a fi neînțelegerile cu privire la prețul petrolului dintre Rusia și Arabia Saudita. Țările membre ale OPEC și Rusia (cunoscute ca OPEC+) își coordonează producția pentru a menține un preț mutual acceptabil al petrolului. În martie însă, Kremlinul a evaluat incorect impactul pandemiei de COVID-19 asupra economiei mondiale, refuzând diminuarea producției ca răspuns la scăderea cererii de petrol pe piață. Motivând contextul lipsit de claritate, precum și faptul că este prea devreme pentru o astfel de decizie, oficialii ruși s-au retras de la masa negocierilor. Răspunsul Arabiei Saudite, cel mai mare exportator de petrol din lume, a fost cât se poate de prompt, inundând practic piața cu o cantitate uriașă de petrol, concomitent cu discounturi care au generat cea mai mare prăbușire a prețurilor de la Războiul din Golf.

O victimă deloc de neglijat a acestui război al prețurilor este industria șistului din US – aflată la limita profitabilității, din cauza costurilor de exploatare mult mai ridicate. Există numeroase speculații în presa internațională referitoare la motivațiile Kremlinului pentru această mutare strategică, de la sancțiunile Washingtonului pentru războiul din Ucraina, imixtiunile în alegerile prezidențiale din 2016, demersurile constante și agresive ale lui Trump împotriva proiectului Nord Stream 2 sau boicotul american împotriva Rosneft Venezuela.

Publicat integral in revista Economistul nr. 7-8. 2020

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